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Öğe A mathematical modelling for solar irradiance reduction of sunshades and some near-future albedo modification approaches for mitigation of global warming(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2024) Alagoz, Baris Baykant; Keles, Cemal; Ates, Abdullah; Baran, BurhanTo address the global warming problem, one of the space-based geoengineering solutions suggests the construction of an occluding disc that can work as a solar curtain to mitigate solar irradiation penetration to the earth atmosphere. A widely discussed concept needs the construction of a large-scale sunshade system near the Sun-Earth L-1 equilibrium point in order to control the average global temperature. However, to improve the accuracy of theoretical estimations, more consistent modeling of the Sun-Curtain-Earth system and solar irradiance reduction rate are required. This study revisits the mathematical modeling of the solar irradiance reduction system and considers the fundamentals of shading physics. Simplified mathematical modeling of solar irradiance reduction rate is derived based on the solar flux density. For the climate control, controllability of the reduction rate by using some physical parameters (e.g., flux reflection rate and angle of the curtain) is discussed. Based on the results of this model, the technical challenges and feasibility of constructing a sunshade system at L-1 Lagrange point are evaluated. Some technologically feasible, near-future options for the warming problem are discussed briefly.Öğe A note on effects of fossil fuel reduction policies on atmospheric carbon dioxide buildup and global warming(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2026) Alagoz, Baris Baykant; Keles, Cemal; Baran, BurhanGlobal warming is a near-future major problem that has serious consequences on life on Earth. Accumulation of CO2 emission in the atmosphere becomes a dominating factor in the global warming process. This study introduces a global temperature uptrend model that considers effects of atmospheric CO2 buildup because of combustion of natural gas, oil and coal fuels. The model is based on earth's energy balance modeling and estimates impacts of fossil fuel-based CO2 emission on the average global temperature. To evaluate effects of fossil fuel reduction policies, this model is used to study yearly 3 %, 5 % and 7 % fossil fuel reduction scenarios on 2013-2022 global fuel consumption data. This backward projection indicated that the cumulative carbon dioxide emission of 10-year global fuel consumption has potential of about +0.023 degrees C/y global temperature rise between 2013 and 2022 years. Moreover, this model is also used for forward projections to discuss the effects of these 10year-long fossil fuel reduction programs on future trends of global temperature anomaly.Öğe Can global-scale installation of photovoltaics warm earth?(Springer Wien, 2025) Baran, Burhan; Keles, Cemal; Alagoz, Baris BaykantPhotovoltaic (PV) systems play an important role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to the mitigation of global warming. However, as the PV installation area grows in global-scales, changes in reflection properties of Earth surface may modify the bond albedo. This geophysical effect of the PV covered Earth surface may lead to observable decreases in Bond albedo because the albedo of contemporary PV panel systems is mostly smaller than the ground albedo. Such a secondary effect may strengthen to a magnitude that causes unignorable additional warming. This study addresses geophysical and climatic effects of the global-scale PV installation. Although solar energy as a substitute of energy from fossil fuels can reduce greenhouse gases, this secondary effect of PV surfaces should be studied in order to maintain the advantages of the PV panel system in the mitigation of global warming. Therefore, to analyze effects of global-scale PV installations on the Bond albedo, a Bond Albedo Alteration (BAA) model is derived, and the global temperature anomaly depending on PV installation on various ground types, up to 5% of the total Earth surfaces, is analyzed. To deal with decreases in the bond albedo due to local PV covering, a PV panel albedo criterion is suggested. The albedo of PV panel surfaces can be enhanced according to the surface albedo of installed surfaces, and the PV albedo enhancement promises even cooling effects, these effects can be utilized for the constitution of feasible climate control strategies and the mitigation of global warming problems.Öğe Energy Consumption Analysis of Motorized Transportation in Cities by Considering Average Mobile Mass(Ieee, 2016) Alagoz, Basis Baykant; Alagoz, Serkan; Baran, BurhanOngoing migration trend to urban areas populates cities and leads to urbanization problems. A major problem of crowded cities is human mobility. Growing urban population and increase of personal automobiles in traffic lead to energy inefficiency in daily transportation activities and result in emission of more heat and pollutant in urban areas. Energy inefficiency in motorized transportation has negative effects on welfare of citizen, public health, air quality and economy of cities. More carbon emission and related global climate changes are global effects of energy inefficiency in transportation. This study presents an analysis of transportation energy consumption based on average mass mobility. Weighting average function is used to statistically represent transportation mode and social gender patterns of cities. Analysis examples are illustrated and solutions for improvement of energy efficiency are discussed in the aspect of human mobility in urban areas. The study can be useful for evaluation of transportation efficiency.Öğe Enerji Denge Modeli Bağlamında Küresel Isınma ve İklim Değişikliği Sorunlarının İncelenmesi: Dünya Enerji Bütçesi ve Radyatif Zorlama Kavramları(2024) Alagoz, Baris Baykant; Baran, Burhan; Keleş, Cemalİklim modelleri, küresel ısınma ve iklim değişimi konularında elde edilen verilerin analizi ile iklim değişimlerinin yakın zamanlı gelişimi konusunda tahminlere olanak tanır. Bu çalışmada, küresel ısınma ve iklim değişimi konularında kullanılan enerji denge modelinin temelleri ve bu model yardımı ile yapılabilen analizler incelenmektedir. Bu basitleştirilmiş enerji denge modeli, güneşten dünyaya gelen ışıma enerjisinin dünyadan uzaya giden ışınım enerjisi ile dengelenmesi durumunu inceler. Bu bağlamda, küresel ısınmaya etki eden faktörlerin, denge durumu üzerinde etkisi olan birer radyatif (ışınımsal) zorlama olarak incelenmesine imkân sağlar. Böylece çok karmaşık ve dinamik olarak değişen meteorolojik ve jeolojik etmenlere bağlı olan iklim değişiminin, enerji bütçesi temelinde basitleştirilmiş analizlerini mümkün kılar. Bu çalışmada, Stefan-Boltzmann ve Wien Yer Değiştirme gibi temel ışınım kanunları çerçevesinde, güneşten gelen ışıma enerjisinin dünya tarafından emilim ve yansıma oranları dünya atmosferinden uzaya enerji çıkışını sağlayan ve elektromanyetik spektrumun uzun dalga boyunda yer alan atmosferik pencere kavramları incelenmiştir. Bu çerçevede, insan aktiviteleri ile değişebilme potansiyeli olan Albedo (yansıtabilirlik) radyatif zorlaması ve atmosferdeki CO2 molekülü birikimine bağlı radyatif zorlama etkileri açıklanmıştır. Sunulan temel kavramlar ve modellerin kolay anlaşılabilir olması için açıklayıcı örnekler ve verilere bağlı hesaplama ve analizler sunulmuştur. Bu makalenin küresel ısınma ve iklim değişimi konularında bazı temel kavramların açıklandığı eğitsel bir kaynak niteliği taşıması amaçlanmıştır.Öğe Global temperature anomaly prediction by using additive twin LSTM networks(Nature Portfolio, 2026) Keles, Cemal; Baran, Burhan; Alagoz, Baris BaykantDue to the complexity of climate systems, data-driven modeling based on observed time series data is essential for predicting future climatic trends. This study aims to improve the long-term global temperature anomaly forecast performance of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based neural network models. Although several LSTM variants and hybrid architectures have been suggested for time series data prediction problems, the long-term forecast performance of these models may not be satisfactory in practice. To address solution of these problems, firstly, authors focused on evaluating the forecast performance of models and suggested performance and test assessment procedures. Secondly, authors suggest an Additive Twin LSTM (AT-LSTM) model that can improve the forecast performance for the global temperature anomaly. Our test on the Berkeley Global Temperature Anomaly dataset demonstrates that the proposed AT-LSTM can improve performance relative to conventional LSTM variants in long-term forecasting. Authors observed that global temperature trend projections of the AT-LSTM models for 20 years in future are consistent with expectations of climate organizations and projections in other works. The AT-LSTM models forecasted an average of 1.415 degrees C with +/- 0.073 degrees C error in the year 2042 and this indicates the strong potential of major climate changes in the near future of Earth.Öğe Güneş - rüzgar hibrit sistemlerin maliyet optimizasyonu(İnönü Üniversitesi, 2012) Baran, BurhanBu çalışmada Malatya Meteoroloji Bölge Müdürlüğü'nden alınan saatlik güneş ve rüzgar verileri kullanılan güneş-rüzgar hibrit sistem tasarımı için bir optimizasyon çalışması yapılmıştır. Hibrit güneş-rüzgar güç üretim sistemlerinin tasarımında iki temel konu üzerinde araştırma yapılması gerekmektedir. Bunlardan birincisi değişen atmosferik koşullar altında hibrit sistemde yükün güçsüz kalma olasılığı, ikincisi ise bu olasılığa bağlı olarak oluşan sistem maliyetidir. Optimum sistem tasarımında bu iki kriterin de minimum seviyede olması gereklidir. Bu çalışmada her iki kriterin minimum olduğu değerleri hesaplamak için MATLAB'de bir program yazılmıştır. Optimizasyon sürecindeki karar değişkenleri güneş pili sayısı, rüzgar türbini sayısı, batarya sayısı ve rüzgar türbini kurulum yüksekliğidir. Önerilen yöntem Malatya ilindeki bir telekom radyolink istasyonunun elektrik ihtiyacını karşılamak için uygulanmış ve çalışma sonunda tasarım sonuçları verilmiştir. Tasarlanan sistemin sonuçlarını doğrulamak için, özellikle rüzgar hızı farklı olan Çanakkale ilinin de hibrit sistem tasarımı yapılmıştır.Öğe Impact of Covid-19 Outbreak on Turkey Electricity Generation(2023) Baran, BurhanWith this study, it was aimed to analyze the change of electricity generation in Turkey depending on COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, analyzes of the changes in nine different electricity generation sectors besides total electricity generation were done. In addition, these analyze were also carried out on a monthly basis in order to better understand the change in total electricity generation. Trend, naive, exponential smoothing and holt linear trend methods were used for the analysis. The results were obtained by taking into account the 2020 forecast values of the method belonging to the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values obtained from these methods. According to these results, it was concluded that the COVID-19 epidemic negatively affected electricity generation from total, dam, lignite, stream, imported coal and wind and did not adversely affect electricity generation from natural gas, wind, solar, geothermal and biomass in Turkey for 2020. From the results of the analysis done for the monthly change in total electricity generation in 2020, it was seen that there was a decrease in the total generation compared to the expected in the months when there were restrictions.Öğe Management Simulation of Multi-Source Renewable Energy Microgrids(Ieee, 2016) Baran, Burhan; Mamis, Mehmet Salih; Alagoz, Baris BaykantIn this study, we present a management simulation of microgrid composed of waste (EfW) plant, solar power and wind energy plants as renewable energy sources and a Pumped Hydroelectric Energy Storage (PHES) as distributed storage unit. In this manner, simulations were carried out for different production and consumption scenarios by using the simulation models developed in Matlab environment and the results are discussed. Strong and weak renewable energy generation states are considered at the presence and absence of PHES. Thus, we analyze energy dispatching rates of microgrid from transmission grid for the both presence and absence of PHES. Also, the dependence of microgrid to transmission grid is evaluated. A conditional flow control algorithm is employed for management algorithm.Öğe Providing the Ratio of Micro Hydroelectric Generation of the Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plant to Turkey's Total Electricity Consumption(2022) Baran, BurhanIn this study, it was aimed to determine to provide the ratio of municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) micro-hydropower generation to Turkey’s total electricity consumption. Primarily, population and treated wastewater flow predictions of Turkey were made between 2020 and 2023 years. The power predictions that micro-hydroelectric power plants could generate were made by using 2 meters drop height and predicted flow data. Then, for the same years, Turkey's total electricity consumption prediction was made. For forecasting data for the coming years, a forecast sheet application was used. Finally, the total predicted electrical energies that could be generated with micro-hydroelectric at municipal WWTPs were compared with Turkey's predicted electricity consumption from 2020 to 2023 years. Thus, the ratio of these two parameters to each other was determined. The population was predicted as 87873632 people and the total amount of treated wastewater (TWW) was predicted as 5117528600 m3 for the year 2023. Total annual electricity generation that could be generated from micro-hydroelectric power plants was predicted as 2231 GW/year for 2023 year, while the total electrical power consumption value was predicted as 312547 GW/year. It was predicted that the supplying ratio of micro-hydropower generation in municipal WWTPs to total electricity consumption would be 0.00714% on average between 2020-2023 years.Öğe Türkiye’nin endüstriyel elektrik tüketimine yönelik depolama gazı enerji potansiyeli(2022) Baran, BurhanBu çalışmada Türkiye’deki kentsel katı atıklardan elde edilen metan gazına bağlı elektrik üretiminin endüstriyel elektrik tüketimini karşılama oranı üzerine bir tahmin çalışması yapılmıştır. Tahminler yapılırken matrix laboratory (Matlab) ortamında yazılan eğri uydurma yöntemi, holt linear trend yöntemi ve excel tahmin sayfası uygulaması kullanılmıştır. Çalışmalar sonucunda en düşük ortalama mutlak hata yüzdesi (MAPE) değerleri nüfus için % 0.07, kentsel katı atık (KKA) için % 16.6 ve endüstriyel elektrik tüketimi (EET) için % 5.9 olarak elde edilmiştir. Yıllar içinde oluşacak metan gazı miktarını hesaplamak için ise Landfill Gas Emissions Model (LandGEM) v.3.02 kullanılmıştır. Model tarafından hesaplanan metan gazı verileri dikkate alınarak 2017-2025 yılları arasında elde edilebilecek elektrik enerjisi miktarının tahmini yapılmıştır. Elde edilen değerlere göre 2025 yılında metan gazından elde edilebilecek elektrik enerjisinin 2155.55 GWh olacağı, bu üretim değeri ile EET’nin % 1.464’lük kısmının karşılanabileceği tahmin edilmiştir.Öğe Utilization of Energy from Waste Plants for Microgrids(Ieee, 2016) Baran, Burhan; Mamis, Mehmet Salih; Alagoz, Baris BaykantEnergy from Waste (EfW) should be taken account as an alternative renewable resource for local energy generation in microgrids. This study theoretically demonstrates benefits of EfW plants for microgrids. Power flow simulation results were shown for a scenario of town grid with the population size of 115000. IEEE 9 Bus system is used to model distribution system of this town. 5 MW Energy from Waste Incineration (EfWI) plant and 10 MW solar plant are integrated to distribution system. Simulation results demonstrate that despite the fact that EfWI plant provides a limited energy generation potential, it can be utilized as a secondary renewable source to reduce peak demand in the hours of excessive demand.Öğe Utilization of energy from waste potential in Turkey as distributed secondary renewable energy source(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2016) Baran, Burhan; Mamis, Mehmet Salih; Alagoz, Baris BaykantRunning out of fossil fuels and rising of environmental issues pressurize energy policies in the direction of increasing renewable energy utilization. As a part of full-recycling scheme, Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) can be accounted as an alternative and prevalent source of renewable energy for smart grid applications. This study presents a case study investigating the future of dry combustion in Turkey and gives some projections on Energy from Waste (EfW) utilization potentials as secondary local generators. EfW potential of MSW incineration plants is modeled depending on MSW mass function. An empirical formula for prediction of EfW potential of Turkey is derived by curve fitting to yearly MSW data. Dependence of EfW potential on human population is modeled and thus spread of EfW potential over the territory of Anatolia landscape is illustrated. Analyses reveal that EfW has a potential to be local source of renewable energy for future smart grids due to the fact that EfW exhibits energy generation distribution correlated with city population. We concluded that EfW incineration plants can act on sustainable development of Turkey by serving as a consistent, distributed, near-field generators integrated to waste management systems of cities. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Öğe Yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarını içeren mikro-şebeke sistemlerin akıllı yönetimi(İnönü Üniversitesi, 2017) Baran, BurhanBu tez çalışmasında güneş ve rüzgar enerjisi santralleri ve atıktan enerji tesisi (AET)'nden oluşan dağıtık yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları ve pompaj depolamalı hidroelektrik santral (PHES) ünitesinden oluşan dağıtık depolama ünitesinin olduğu bir mikro şebekenin akıllı yönetimi amaçlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda, şartlı akış algoritması ile enerji dengeleme ve depolama süreçleri tanımlanmış ve otonom şebeke yönetim sistemi geliştirilmiştir. Bu sistemin ürettiği, başarılı yönetim kalıpları aşırı öğrenme makinalarının (AÖM) eğitiminde kullanılmış ve AÖM ile mikro şebekenin akıllı yönetimi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Matlab ve PowerWorld ortamlarında geliştirilen simülasyon modelleri ile önerilen yöntemin farklı üretim ve tüketim senaryoları için testleri yapılmış ve elde edilen sonuçlar tartışılmıştır. Bu simülasyon çalışmalarında, güneş ve rüzgar santralleri ile AET'den oluşan yenilenebilir kaynakların üretim profili modellemeleri, dağıtık depolama ünitesinin davranışsal modeli ve farklı talep koşullarının analizi için ise hane, hastane ve okullardan oluşan değişken talep modelleri kullanılmıştır. Güçlü, zayıf ve ada modu durumları için hem PHES'in olduğu hem de olmadığı durumlar ayrı ayrı analiz edilmiştir. Bu analizlerin sonucunda ise PHES'in olduğu ve olmadığı durumlarda mikro şebekenin dağıtım şebekesi ile olan enerji alışverişi oranları çıkarılmış olup, mikro şebekenin ana şebekeye olan bağımlılığını değerlendiren veriler elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca mikro şebekenin ana şebekeden hiçbir şartta enerji almadığı, ancak enerji verebildiği PHES'li ada modu durumunda çalışabilmesi için gerekli yenilenebilir enerji kaynağı sayıları ise doğrudan ayrıntılı arama metodu kullanan bir algoritma ile elde edilmiştir.
