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Öğe COVID-19, lockdown measures and their impact on food and healthcare prices: empirical evidence using a dynamic ARDL model(Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2023) Chang, Bisharat Hussain; Gohar, Raheel; Derindag, Omer Faruk; Uche, EmmanuelPurpose This research examines the impact of lockdown stringency measures and COVID-19 cases on food and healthcare prices in six Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey (BRICST) countries. This research is conducted in these countries since previous studies failed to examine the effect of COVID-19 reported cases on food and healthcare prices. Design/methodology/approach To achieve the objectives of this study, food and healthcare services were regressed against CVC and lockdown stringency measures using the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DARDL) model. For this purpose, we used daily data for BRICST countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey. Findings The empirical evidence indicates that, in the long run, COVID-19 cases significantly and positively affect both food and healthcare prices in India, South Africa and China. In contrast, in the short run, COVID-19 positively affects food and healthcare prices in all countries except Russia and Turkey. Similarly, in the long run, the government stringency index (GSI) and Containment and Health Index (CHI) significantly affect health prices in India and South Africa. In contrast, GSI and CHI significantly affect healthcare prices in South Africa only in the short run. Finally, GSI and CHI significantly affect the food prices in the long run in India, South Africa and China and in the short run in South Africa only. Originality/value The widespread impact of the new Coronavirus (COVID-19) has made the world panic. COVID-19 affected all spheres of life, including food supplies and healthcare services. However, most of the empirical research failed to examine the impact of COVID-19 cases on food and healthcare prices which is the main focus of this study. Moreover, in the given context, the authors use a recently developed model that the previous studies failed to use.Öğe DOES US INFECTIOUS DISEASE EQUITY MARKET VOLATILITY INDEX PREDICT G7 STOCK RETURNS? EVIDENCE BEYOND SYMMETRY(World Scientific Publ Co Pte Ltd, 2023) Gohar, Raheel; Salman, Asma; Uche, Emmanuel; Derindag, Omer Faruk; Chang, Bisharat HussainDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, Baker et al. (2020) [The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10, 742-758.] proposed the infectious disease equity market volatility (ID-EMV) index, which tracks US equity market volatility caused by infectious diseases. We extended the literature by using this newly developed ID-EMV index to examine its asymmetric effect on the share market returns of the G7 countries, which include the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, and the United States of America. Moreover, we used novel techniques like the quantile-on-quantile regression test, quantile cointegration test, and quantile unit root test. The quantile cointegration test indicates that the infectious disease EMV index is cointegrated with G7 stock returns. Moreover, the quantile-on-quantile regression technique reveals that the infectious disease index positively affects stock returns during bullish states of the stock markets. In contrast, it negatively affects stock returns during bearish states of the stock market returns. The negative effect of the bearish states implies that investors may discourage investments during the downturns of the economy, whereas they need to boost their investments during economic booms.Öğe Exchange Rate Effect on the Household Consumption in BRICST Countries: Evidence from MATNARDL Model(World Scientific Publ Co Pte Ltd, 2022) Derindag, Omer Faruk; Chang, Bisharat Hussain; Gohar, Raheel; Salman, AsmaVarious empirical methodologies have examined the relationship between exchange rate and household consumption expenditures. However, traditional methods fail to analyze the exchange rate effect on consumption across minor and major currency depreciation and appreciations. We attempt to extend the existing literature by examining the impact of minor and major currency appreciation and depreciation on household consumption expenditures in BRICST countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey. We use an extended version of the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) and multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model called the multiple asymmetric ARDL (MATNARDL) model. Our estimates, based on the traditional NARDL model, indicate that the asymmetric effect is found in the context of India and China only. However, the MATNARDL estimates suggest that, in the long run, the asymmetric effect is found for all the sample countries except India whereas, in the short run, the asymmetric effect is found for all the sample countries except Turkey. Finally, this study recommends the policy implications based on the results obtained in this study.Öğe Food prices response to global and national factors: Evidence beyond asymmetry(Taylor & Francis As, 2023) Derindag, Omer Faruk; Chang, Bisharat Hussain; Gohar, Raheel; Wong, Wing-Keung; Bhutto, Niaz AhmedThe current series of studies examine how local food prices are affected by domestic and international factors. This research advances the existing body of knowledge by examining this effect at different quantiles, frequencies, and times. We use research data from January 1999 to August 2022 using three local and six global variables as independent variables. Additionally, our study uses recent econometric methods, including Wavelet Coherence, Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR), and Granger Causality in Quantiles (GCQ). Moreover, this research uses the Quantile Regression (QR) approach to determine how reliable the findings are. Based on the GCQ approach, the results demonstrate that the correlation persists at most of the quantiles. Moreover, the WC results demonstrate a substantial association between local prices of food and the independent factors across various frequencies and times. Additionally, QQR estimates demonstrate that the impact of exogenous variables on food prices vary among quantiles. These findings are also supported by the QR method. Last but not least, our study offers policy suggestions obtained based on the results of this study.Öğe Nexus between Consumption, Income, and Price Changes: Asymmetric Evidence from NARDL Model(Syarif Syarif Hidayatullah State Univ Jakarta, 2022) Gohar, Raheel; Chang, Bisharat Hussain; Derindag, Omer Faruk; Abro, ZahidaPrevious research has primarily examined the link between price, income, and consumer spending using linear regression models. On the other hand, the latest evidence shows an asymmetric link among economic and financial variables. We contribute to the literature by employing a novel technique known as the asymmetric ARDL model. This approach is used to investigate the impact of favorable and unfavorable changes in income and prices on household consumption. The results show that higher income has a substantial and beneficial effect on household expenditures in the short term and long term. On the other hand, a fall in income has no impact on consumer spending. Moreover, for most developing countries, price adjustments have a negligible effect on consumer expenditures. Our findings suggest that implementing the same policy initiatives across periods of rising and falling income and prices may result in potential losses.
