Yazar "Mohammadi, Babak" seçeneğine göre listele

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    An improved adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for hydrological drought prediction in Algeria
    (Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2023) Achite, Mohammed; Gul, Enes; Elshaboury, Nehal; Jehanzaib, Muhammad; Mohammadi, Babak; Mehr, Ali Danandeh
    Drought has negative impacts on water resources, food security, soil degradation, desertification and agricultural productivity. The meteorological and hydrological droughts prediction using standardized precipitation/runoff indices (SPI/SRI) is crucial for effective water resource management. In this study, we suggest ANFISWCA, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) optimized by the water cycle algorithm (WCA), for hydrological drought forecasting in semi-arid regions of Algeria. The new model was used to predict SRI at 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12 -month accumulation periods in the Wadi Mina basin, Algeria. The results of the model were assessed using four criteria; determination coefficient, mean absolute error, variance accounted for, and root mean square error, and compared with those of the standalone ANFIS model. The findings suggested that throughout the testing phase at all the sub-basins, the proposed hybrid model outperformed the conventional model for estimating drought. This study indicated that the WCA algorithm enhanced the ANFIS model's drought forecasting accuracy. The pro-posed model could be employed for forecasting drought at multi-timescales, deciding on remedial strategies for dealing with drought at study stations, and aiding in sustainable water resources management.
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    Optimizing Extreme Learning Machine for Drought Forecasting: Water Cycle vs. Bacterial Foraging
    (Mdpi, 2023) Mehr, Ali Danandeh; Tur, Rifat; Alee, Mohammed Mustafa; Gul, Enes; Nourani, Vahid; Shoaei, Shahrokh; Mohammadi, Babak
    Machine learning (ML) methods have shown noteworthy skill in recognizing environmental patterns. However, presence of weather noise associated with the chaotic characteristics of water cycle components restricts the capability of standalone ML models in the modeling of extreme climate events such as droughts. To tackle the problem, this article suggests two novel hybrid ML models based on combination of extreme learning machine (ELM) with water cycle algorithm (WCA) and bacterial foraging optimization (BFO). The new models, respectively called ELM-WCA and ELM-BFO, were applied to forecast standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at Beypazari and Nallihan meteorological stations in Ankara province (Turkey). The performance of the proposed models was compared with those the standalone ELM considering root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and graphical plots. The forecasting results for three- and six-month accumulation periods showed that the ELM-WCA is superior to its counterparts. The NSE results of the SPEI-3 forecasting in the testing period proved that the ELM-WCA improved drought modeling accuracy of the standalone ELM up to 72% and 85% at Beypazari and Nallihan stations, respectively. Regarding the SPEI-6 forecasting results, the ELM-WCA achieved the highest RMSE reduction percentage about 63% and 56% at Beypazari and Nallihan stations, respectively.