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    DOES US INFECTIOUS DISEASE EQUITY MARKET VOLATILITY INDEX PREDICT G7 STOCK RETURNS? EVIDENCE BEYOND SYMMETRY
    (World Scientific Publ Co Pte Ltd, 2023) Gohar, Raheel; Salman, Asma; Uche, Emmanuel; Derindag, Omer Faruk; Chang, Bisharat Hussain
    During the COVID-19 pandemic, Baker et al. (2020) [The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10, 742-758.] proposed the infectious disease equity market volatility (ID-EMV) index, which tracks US equity market volatility caused by infectious diseases. We extended the literature by using this newly developed ID-EMV index to examine its asymmetric effect on the share market returns of the G7 countries, which include the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, and the United States of America. Moreover, we used novel techniques like the quantile-on-quantile regression test, quantile cointegration test, and quantile unit root test. The quantile cointegration test indicates that the infectious disease EMV index is cointegrated with G7 stock returns. Moreover, the quantile-on-quantile regression technique reveals that the infectious disease index positively affects stock returns during bullish states of the stock markets. In contrast, it negatively affects stock returns during bearish states of the stock market returns. The negative effect of the bearish states implies that investors may discourage investments during the downturns of the economy, whereas they need to boost their investments during economic booms.
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    Exchange Rate Effect on the Household Consumption in BRICST Countries: Evidence from MATNARDL Model
    (World Scientific Publ Co Pte Ltd, 2022) Derindag, Omer Faruk; Chang, Bisharat Hussain; Gohar, Raheel; Salman, Asma
    Various empirical methodologies have examined the relationship between exchange rate and household consumption expenditures. However, traditional methods fail to analyze the exchange rate effect on consumption across minor and major currency depreciation and appreciations. We attempt to extend the existing literature by examining the impact of minor and major currency appreciation and depreciation on household consumption expenditures in BRICST countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey. We use an extended version of the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) and multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model called the multiple asymmetric ARDL (MATNARDL) model. Our estimates, based on the traditional NARDL model, indicate that the asymmetric effect is found in the context of India and China only. However, the MATNARDL estimates suggest that, in the long run, the asymmetric effect is found for all the sample countries except India whereas, in the short run, the asymmetric effect is found for all the sample countries except Turkey. Finally, this study recommends the policy implications based on the results obtained in this study.