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    Türkiye’de ikiz açık sorunu ve feldstein-horioka hipotezi: Ardl yaklaşımı ve nedensellik araştırması
    (İnönü Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, 2009) Altıntaş, Halil; Taban, Sami
    This paper, based on the work of Fidrmuc (2003), aims to test the twin deficit (current account deficit-budget deficit) and Feldstein Horioka (1980) hypothesis, using the annual data from 1974 to 2007. Current account, budget balance and fixed capital investments were used in the model. Since the variables were found stationary in different levels, the bound test approach known as ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) cointegration method was used. The empirical results indicate that there is a significant long-run relationship between the variables. Evidence from the ARDL approach shows that one point increase in budget deficit increases current account deficit by 0.246 and one point increase in domestic investment increases current account deficit by 0.324. Moreover, the positive sign on the budget deficit coefficient implies that Turkey has a twin deficit problem. While the negative sign on the investment coefficient, but less than 1, suggest that Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis holds in Turkey. It can be derived from the model that since one-third of the investments was financed through foreign savings, Turkey could not be adequately integrated with the world capital markets. Furthermore, the presence of twin deficit has been confirmed by the granger causality test results.