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    COVID-19, lockdown measures and their impact on food and healthcare prices: empirical evidence using a dynamic ARDL model
    (Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2023) Chang, Bisharat Hussain; Gohar, Raheel; Derindag, Omer Faruk; Uche, Emmanuel
    Purpose This research examines the impact of lockdown stringency measures and COVID-19 cases on food and healthcare prices in six Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey (BRICST) countries. This research is conducted in these countries since previous studies failed to examine the effect of COVID-19 reported cases on food and healthcare prices. Design/methodology/approach To achieve the objectives of this study, food and healthcare services were regressed against CVC and lockdown stringency measures using the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DARDL) model. For this purpose, we used daily data for BRICST countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey. Findings The empirical evidence indicates that, in the long run, COVID-19 cases significantly and positively affect both food and healthcare prices in India, South Africa and China. In contrast, in the short run, COVID-19 positively affects food and healthcare prices in all countries except Russia and Turkey. Similarly, in the long run, the government stringency index (GSI) and Containment and Health Index (CHI) significantly affect health prices in India and South Africa. In contrast, GSI and CHI significantly affect healthcare prices in South Africa only in the short run. Finally, GSI and CHI significantly affect the food prices in the long run in India, South Africa and China and in the short run in South Africa only. Originality/value The widespread impact of the new Coronavirus (COVID-19) has made the world panic. COVID-19 affected all spheres of life, including food supplies and healthcare services. However, most of the empirical research failed to examine the impact of COVID-19 cases on food and healthcare prices which is the main focus of this study. Moreover, in the given context, the authors use a recently developed model that the previous studies failed to use.
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    DOES US INFECTIOUS DISEASE EQUITY MARKET VOLATILITY INDEX PREDICT G7 STOCK RETURNS? EVIDENCE BEYOND SYMMETRY
    (World Scientific Publ Co Pte Ltd, 2023) Gohar, Raheel; Salman, Asma; Uche, Emmanuel; Derindag, Omer Faruk; Chang, Bisharat Hussain
    During the COVID-19 pandemic, Baker et al. (2020) [The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10, 742-758.] proposed the infectious disease equity market volatility (ID-EMV) index, which tracks US equity market volatility caused by infectious diseases. We extended the literature by using this newly developed ID-EMV index to examine its asymmetric effect on the share market returns of the G7 countries, which include the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, and the United States of America. Moreover, we used novel techniques like the quantile-on-quantile regression test, quantile cointegration test, and quantile unit root test. The quantile cointegration test indicates that the infectious disease EMV index is cointegrated with G7 stock returns. Moreover, the quantile-on-quantile regression technique reveals that the infectious disease index positively affects stock returns during bullish states of the stock markets. In contrast, it negatively affects stock returns during bearish states of the stock market returns. The negative effect of the bearish states implies that investors may discourage investments during the downturns of the economy, whereas they need to boost their investments during economic booms.