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    Flood hazard mapping using M5 tree algorithms and logistic regression; a case study in East Black Sea Region
    (Springer Heidelberg, 2023) Yukseler, Ufuk; Toprak, Ahmet; Gul, Enes; Dursun, O. Faruk
    Flood is a type of disaster that occurs as a result of the overflow of the stream outside its bed. Similarly to many parts of the globe, particularly the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey is frequently exposed to major floods. The heavy rainfall and topographic structure of the region and the proximity of settlements to stream beds are the primary causes of flooding. The present study pertains to the utilization of the Logistic Regression (LR), M5P Rule Tree (M5PRT) and M5P Regression Tree (M5PRGT) models for the assessment of the flood hazard areas in and around the Of district, located on the Black Sea coast of Trabzon province. According to flood inventory, 16 flood events occurred in 5 different locations in the study area. These areas were converted into point data, and comprising a total of 1600 points, 800 flooded and 800 non-flooded, were determined by random sampling. Accordingly, flood hazard maps were created with 8 flood parameters and 3 different methods. Accuracies of these models were evaluated through AUC (Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve), ACC (Accuracy), R (Recall), P (Precision) and F (F-Score). Analyses showed that the Tree-Based Algorithms are more successful than the LR method in detecting the flood hazards. In addition, the altitude and precipitation were found out to be the most influential parameters in all 3 methods on the occurrence of flooding events in the region. The confluence points of the streams, the coastal plain where the stream disembogues to the sea and the valley floors in and around the Of district were designated as the areas with high risk of flooding.
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    Trend analyses for discharge-recharge of Tacin karstic spring (Kayseri, Turkey)
    (Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2021) Celiker, Murat; Yukseler, Ufuk; Dursun, Omer Faruk
    Vast research is conducted around the world in order to determine the effects of climate change on water resources. Determining and preserving the rechanging characteristics of karstic springs has an important place in water resources management studies. In the present study, the variation trends of climate parameters, affecting the discharge trend of the Tacin karstic spring in Kayseri, Turkey and the spring discharge, were analyzed. For this purpose, the monthly mean discharge flow of the karstic spring between the years 1975 and 2017 and the monthly average temperatures and precipitation parameters belonging to the meteorological stations close to the spring (Kayseri, Pinarbast, Gemerek and Sarlosla) were adopted. In the trend analyses, the non-parametric Spearman Rho (SR), Mann Kendall (MK) and sen-Innovative Trend analysis tests (Sen-ITA) were used in addition to the non-linear tests. Accordingly, a reduction was observed in the change trend of the precipitation parameter of Pinarbasi and Kayseri stations and an increase in the respective measure of the Gemerek and Sarlosla stations while a noticeable decrease took place in the flow discharge of the Tacin karstic spring. The temperature parameter underwent a similar increase in all of the four stations meanwhile. Consequently, the decrease trend in the flow discharges of the Tacin karstic aquifer was inferred to stem from the reduction in the precipitation trend, observed in the southern part of the karstic aquifer.