Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

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dc.authoridErcan, Mehmet B/0000-0002-6799-8990
dc.authoridMorsy, Mohamed M/0000-0001-9217-4822;
dc.authorwosidErcan, Mehmet B./ABG-8062-2020
dc.authorwosidErcan, Mehmet B/E-9141-2010
dc.authorwosidMorsy, Mohamed M/AFB-3219-2022
dc.authorwosidGoodall, Jonathan L/B-3663-2009
dc.contributor.authorErcan, Mehmet B.
dc.contributor.authorMaghami, Iman
dc.contributor.authorBowes, Benjamin
dc.contributor.authorMorsy, Mohamed M.
dc.contributor.authorGoodall, Jonathan L.
dc.date.accessioned2024-08-04T20:46:56Z
dc.date.available2024-08-04T20:46:56Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.departmentİnönü Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractClimate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed's water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid-century, and end-century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid-century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end-century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipUnited States National Science Foundation (NSF) [CBET-0846244]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipWe acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 2 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We also acknowledge Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections archive at https://gdo-dcp.uc llnl.org/downscaled_cmip_projections/. The research was funded in part by the United States National Science Foundation (NSF) through award number CBET-0846244.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/1752-1688.12813
dc.identifier.endpage67en_US
dc.identifier.issn1093-474X
dc.identifier.issn1752-1688
dc.identifier.issue1en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85075259252en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2en_US
dc.identifier.startpage53en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12813
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11616/99056
dc.identifier.volume56en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000502598600001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherWileyen_US
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of The American Water Resources Associationen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectwatershed modelingen_US
dc.subjectSWATen_US
dc.subjectclimate changeen_US
dc.subjectwater resourcesen_US
dc.titleEstimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Modelen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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