Empirical Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency Evidence from The Housing Market in Turkey: Macroeconomic Glance
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Tarih
2021
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
The aim of this study is to look for an answer to the question of “Is it possible to discuss the existence ofan efficient market for the housing market in Turkey?”. It was observed that relatively low housing(mortgage) interest rates were accompanied by price rigidity. Accordingly, in the formation of thehousing market definition from the Central Bank (CBRT) database; an empirical analysis was madeusing the Residential Property Price Index for New Dwellings (NRPPI), the Residential Property PriceIndex for Existing Dwellings (ERPPI), the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) and the HedonicHouse Price Index (HHPI). The data range for the first three indices is between 1/2010 and 1/2020.Hedonic housing price index data range is between 1/2011 and 1/2020. Unit root tests were used to testthe Random Walk Theory, which shows the characteristic condition of the housing market. The resultsfrom the study show that above average sustainable returns cannot be obtained from the housing market,as a result the market is poorly efficient. At the same time the housing market in Turkey, the rigidity ofprices found along with excess supply situation is worrisome. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent allkinds of manipulative news that may occur in the housing market by the regulatory and supervisoryinstitutions.
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Kaynak
İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi
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Cilt
6
Sayı
14
