Türkiye'de finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi
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Dosyalar
Tarih
2020
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
İnönü Üniversitesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisini incelemeyi amaçlamıştır. Finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyümeye yani arz öncüllü hipotezin geçerliliği analizi yapılmıştır. 1980-2017 yılları arasında finansal gelişmenin göstergesi özel sektöre verilen kredilerin gayri safi yurtiçi hasılaya oranı, ekonomik büyüme göstergesi ise reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla verileri ile analiz yapılmıştır. Değişkenlere ait verilerin ekonometrik analizinde korelasyon testi yapılmış aynı yönlü güçlü bir ilişki olduğu görülmüştür. Serilerin durağanlıklarını ölçmek için ADF birim kök testi uygunlandıktan sonra seriler durağan hale gelmiştir. ARDL modeli sınır testi ile aralarında %10 anlamlılık seviyesinde eşbütünleşme gerçekleşmektedir. Optimal gecikme uzunluğu Akaike bilgi kriterine göre ARDL (1.0) olarak belirlenmiştir. Yapısal kırılma testi olarak CUSUM testi yapılmış değişkenlerin yapısal kırılma sorunu olmadığı görülmektedir. Değişkenlerin uzun dönemde katsayılarını belirleyebilmek için OLS, FMOLS, DOLS, CCR yöntemleriyle uzun dönemde katsayıları tahmin edilmiştir. Katsayı tahmin sonuçlarına göre finansal gelişmede meydana gelen %1 oranındaki artış ekonomik büyümede %1 oranından daha fazla bir artış gösterdiği için büyük çarpan yaratmış olduğu görülmektedir.
In this study, it is aimed to investigate the relationship in Turkey's financial development and economic growth. The validity analysis of financial development to economic growth, is the supply-led hypothesis, has been made. The ratio of loans to the private sector to gross domestic product, which is an indicator of financial development, between 1980-2017, to the gross domestic product, and the indicator of economic growth, was analyzed with real gross domestic product data. In the econometric analysis of the data of the variables, a correlation test was made and it was seen that there was a strong relationship in the same direction. The series became stationary after the ADF unit root test was used to measure the stationarity of the series. With the ARDL model boundary test, cointegration takes place at a 10% significance level. The optimal delay length was determined as ARDL (1.0) according to the akaike information criterion. It is seen that variables with CUSUM test as structural break test have no structural break problem. In order to determine the coefficients of the variables in the long term, the coefficients in the long term were estimated by OLS, FMOLS, DOLS, CCR methods. According to the coefficient estimation results, it is seen that the 1% increase in financial development has created a large multiplier since it has increased more than 1% in economic growth.
In this study, it is aimed to investigate the relationship in Turkey's financial development and economic growth. The validity analysis of financial development to economic growth, is the supply-led hypothesis, has been made. The ratio of loans to the private sector to gross domestic product, which is an indicator of financial development, between 1980-2017, to the gross domestic product, and the indicator of economic growth, was analyzed with real gross domestic product data. In the econometric analysis of the data of the variables, a correlation test was made and it was seen that there was a strong relationship in the same direction. The series became stationary after the ADF unit root test was used to measure the stationarity of the series. With the ARDL model boundary test, cointegration takes place at a 10% significance level. The optimal delay length was determined as ARDL (1.0) according to the akaike information criterion. It is seen that variables with CUSUM test as structural break test have no structural break problem. In order to determine the coefficients of the variables in the long term, the coefficients in the long term were estimated by OLS, FMOLS, DOLS, CCR methods. According to the coefficient estimation results, it is seen that the 1% increase in financial development has created a large multiplier since it has increased more than 1% in economic growth.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Ekonomi, Economics
Kaynak
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
Sayı
Künye
Adlı, Fatih (2020). Türkiye'de finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Yayımlanmış Yüksek Lisans tezi, İnönü Üniversitesi, Malatya.1-88 ss.
