Computation of Critical Path Probabilities by Modified PERT

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dc.contributor.authorBettemir, Önder Halis
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-25T06:54:51Z
dc.date.available2021-03-25T06:54:51Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.departmentİnönü Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractAbstract: Detection of the critical path and the uncertainty of the estimated duration are important for the contactors. PERT and Modified PERT methods can estimate the uncertainty of construction duration. However, probability of a path being critical is not estimated by the aforementioned methods. Monte Carlo simulation is implemented for the detection of probabilities of activities being critical. However, Monte Carlo simulation requires significant computational demand and this method is not suitable for iterative optimization procedure. In this study, Modified PERT method is enhanced by considering every possible path completion combinations. As a result, probability of finishing a path at a certain time and finishing the remaining paths earlier than the corresponding time is computed. This enabled the computation of probability of a path being critical path. For large networks the number of path completion combinations increases which makes the probabilistic computations burdensome. The relationship between the path completion combinations and the statistical intersection operations is derived and a macro code which executes the intersection computations is generated. The algorithm is tested on four sample problems and the results are compared with Monte Carlo simulation. Analysis results interpret that the method is significantly faster than Monte Carlo simulation with similar probability estimations.en_US
dc.identifier.citationBETTEMİR Ö. H (2020). Computation of Critical Path Probabilities by Modified PERT. Gazi University Journal of Science, 33(3), 673 - 694. Doi: 10.35378/gujs. 611579en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.35378/gujs.611579en_US
dc.identifier.endpage694en_US
dc.identifier.issn2147-1762
dc.identifier.issue3en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85090093598en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityN/Aen_US
dc.identifier.startpage673en_US
dc.identifier.trdizinid363132en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.35378/gujs.611579
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11616/19721
dc.identifier.urihttps://search.trdizin.gov.tr/yayin/detay/363132
dc.identifier.volume33en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000597098300007en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/Aen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakTR-Dizinen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofGazi University Journal of Scienceen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Ulusal Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.titleComputation of Critical Path Probabilities by Modified PERTen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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